2025 Stock Market: It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma —Winston Churchill

The second quarter brought a sharp market drop followed by an unusually fast rebound to record highs. This kind of sudden movement can be unsettling, but your portfolio held up well with reduced volatility. These types of swings—often driven by political headlines—are becoming more common, and we’re managing your investments with that in mind. Our focus remains on achieving steady returns while minimizing risk.

President Trump continues to link his success with the stock market. While some of his decisions can cause short-term market bumps, he usually adjusts if needed. Overall, the U.S. economy remains strong. Inflation is easing, and the job market is shifting toward employers, which has helped reduce employee turnover. In tech, recent layoffs are correcting for pandemic-era over-hiring, and AI advances are improving efficiency across the board.

Unemployment is holding steady around 4.2%, which is low by historical standards. If inflation stays under control and no new tariffs are added, the Federal Reserve may start focusing more on jobs. That shift could lead to lower interest rates—positive news for both stocks and bonds.

A key date to watch is July 9, when the Administration may introduce new tariffs. Details are still unclear, but any new trade restrictions could bring short-term volatility—particularly in manufacturing and global supply chains. We’re watching closely and keeping your portfolio diversified, with a bit more cash than usual. This gives us flexibility to manage risks and take advantage of new opportunities.

Financial scams are on the rise. One of the best ways to protect yourself is to place a credit freeze with all three major credit bureaus. If you haven’t already done this for every member of your household, we strongly recommend it. You can search online for “credit freeze,” or contact us—we’re happy to help.

Very Truly Yours,

Michael F Cantlon
Thomas E Guyett
Robert T Gephart